Anticipating Paul Krugman: Early thoughts on his recent profile in the New Yorker
A lengthy is on my to-read list. (Hat tip: Tyler Cowen). I've read about half, but want to blog it before I get busy ...
One of my favorite things about Krugman is that his interest in economics was inspired to some degree by reading science fiction as a kid, especially Isaac Asimov's Foundation.
Krugman explained that he鈥檇 become an economist because of science fiction. When he was a boy, he鈥檇 read Isaac Asimov鈥檚 鈥淔oundation鈥� trilogy and become obsessed with the central character, Hari Seldon. Seldon was a 鈥減sychohistorian鈥濃�攁 scientist with such a precise understanding of the mechanics of society that he could predict the course of events thousands of years into the future and save mankind from centuries of barbarism. He couldn鈥檛 predict individual behavior鈥攖hat was too hard鈥攂ut it didn鈥檛 matter, because history was determined not by individuals but by laws and hidden forces. 鈥淚f you read other genres of fiction, you can learn about the way people are and the way society is,鈥� Krugman said to the audience, 鈥渂ut you don鈥檛 get very much thinking about why are things the way they are, or what might make them different. What would happen if ?鈥�
With Hari Seldon in mind, Krugman went to Yale, in 1970, intending to study history, but he felt that history was too much about what and not enough about why, so he ended up in economics. Economics, he found, examined the same infinitely complicated social reality that history did but, instead of elucidating its complexity, looked for patterns and rules that made the complexity seem simple.
Since a wonderful part of being alive is anticipation, I have to say that I am very happy to have Paul Krugman in my life. I have great anticipation for what he will write in 10, 15 years about science and science fiction. My guess is that he will have a voice then, an older man's voice, that he cannot have now. His voice now is very engaged in the trees of our time, not the forest of all time.
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