海角大神

Few places will feel the effects of President Trump鈥檚 sweeping new tariffs on U.S. trading partners more than the nation's busiest two ports: Los Angeles聽and nearby Long Beach.

At stake here in the San Pedro Bay is not just dock activity but jobs. Already, amid the tumult of Trump policies, trade volume dropped sharply in May, while the port in LA hit a record high in June as importers rushed to bring in goods ahead of the president鈥檚 Aug. 1 deadline to complete trade deals.聽

But workers and experts say there are deeper and potentially more聽impactful challenges: automation and artificial intelligence.

The transformation, already showing signs of blending technological progress with job protection, is underway 鈥� it started before Mr. Trump鈥檚 tariffs, and is expected to drive more change than any policy that comes out of the White House.聽

鈥淵ou cannot push the genie back into the bottle,鈥� says , who teaches about port management and shipping at Texas A&M University. 鈥淎utomation is there. It鈥檚 [going to] deploy itself in ports around the world. It鈥檚 going to create surges in productivity and efficiency.鈥�

In LA and Long Beach, where automation and AI are in use, the number of some union jobs has grown. But the relationship is complicated, riddled with concerns that advanced technologies will shrink opportunities for well-paid blue-collar work.

It doesn鈥檛 have to be either-or, says , executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. 鈥淲e absolutely couldn鈥檛 live without the skilled labor. We鈥檒l fall behind if we don鈥檛 embrace technology, but we鈥檝e got to find a way to keep the workforce鈥� by bringing on new technologies without sidelining humans.

Family at work and at home

On the job in the San Pedro port complex, there鈥檚 a shared sense of pride, says longshore worker Jennifer Fresquez. As a full-time union member, she is among those who get first pick of the available jobs. It took her a long time to get here: nearly 13 years of working her way up the union ladder. The work can be physically demanding and often dangerous. And she acknowledges the ups and downs that are linked to economic policy. The cargo slowdown in May, for instance, meant half the usual number of union jobs were available for a couple of weeks, she says.

But she says the career has been good for her and her family. She has the flexibility to take vacation or go to her kids鈥� school events. Union members like Ms. Fresquez earn generous benefits and some of the highest wages in the country, beginning at more than the national average. She feels secure with that union backing, even as jobs ebb and flow with tariffs, or the pandemic, or other world events that have played out at the ports. 鈥淭here鈥檚 the good and the bad with everything,鈥� she says 鈥淏ut at the end of the day, nobody can tell me, 鈥楽orry you don鈥檛 have a job anymore.鈥欌��

The camaraderie is what drew her in. 鈥淲e feel like we鈥檙e a family all together outside of our own family,鈥� she says. And in many cases, they鈥檙e one and the same. Family ties are common here, where union workers often follow in the footsteps of their parents and grandparents. Ms. Fresquez鈥檚 father and stepmother worked at the ports. So does her husband and his father, Steve Palumbo, who met his wife working there.

Damian Dovarganes/AP

Containers for Ocean Network Express (ONE), a Singapore-based shipping business, pile up at the Port of Los Angeles, April 9, 2025.

Mr. Palumbo is retired now, but still wakes with the sun to meet other retired dockworkers for breakfast a few times a week. He takes the long view of economic policies and events, noting the growth that came after the Great Recession. Automation, he says, is the real game changer. 鈥淲ith automation coming along, and you start to eliminate jobs, how many jobs are going to be eliminated before it starts affecting retirement?鈥� he asks.

There鈥檚 still time to figure that out, says Ms. Fresquez. For the next five to 10 years, she says, she鈥檚 confident the work will be there. Farther out, though, is less clear. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not that I don鈥檛 think about the future, but 鈥� everything鈥檚 such a roller coaster,鈥� she says in reference to swings at the port. 鈥淵ou kind of learn to just adapt.鈥�

The docks鈥� future is unfolding

Adaptation is a big sticking point between the International Longshore Workers Union, which represents thousands of dock workers at the ports, including Ms. Fresquez, and the Pacific Maritime Association, which represents the shipping terminals. An estimated 100,000 people work at the LA-Long Beach complex on any given day including people like truckers, railroad workers, and municipal employees.

鈥淭he [union鈥檚] goal is to protect jobs,鈥� but the focus on job protection risks impeding 鈥渢erminal efficiency and productivity,鈥� says Professor Rodrigue.

The union, which did not respond to requests for comment for this story, negotiated a labor that ushered in robotics and automation to West Coast ports. In exchange for that concession, the union has won increases.

of the terminals are at least partially automated at the San Pedro complex, compared to about . And artificial intelligence runs a port optimizer at the Port of Los Angeles, which assesses the cargo coming in, identifies potential knots in the supply chain, helps plan for the needed labor, and looks for any new information that might affect operations.

With the use of those technologies over the last decade, productivity is up. The number of 20-foot containers passing through the Port of LA %, and gone up . At the same time, longshore union jobs at the two ports have increased by 27%, according to Mr. Seroka of the port of LA.

鈥淭his kind of defies many norms,鈥� says Mr. Seroka. 鈥淏ut it goes back to the basic postulate that if you can bring more cargo in, it will create more jobs.鈥�

Professor Rodrigue says new technologies can help create new jobs, such as careers managing the tech, while increasing productivity. And jobs related to shipping will increase with the port鈥檚 volume. The ripple effects will require more truckers, more warehouse workers, and more distribution centers, for instance. But the result is likely to yield fewer jobs at the ports themselves, he says.

With shipping volume increasing globally, Professor Rodrigue predicts a 鈥渞eckoning鈥� within the next 10 years, as ports worldwide reach the limitations of their infrastructure. That makes automation and AI even more important for increasing capacity by increasing efficiency, he says.

To usher in a new generation of workers, the LA and Long Beach ports are developing a training center in partnership with the ILWU, Pacific Maritime Association, and California Community Colleges. The 20-acres campus is scheduled to open in 2029.

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to find a middle ground,鈥� that satisfies concerns about job losses while allowing the march of progress, says Mr. Seroka. 鈥淭he conversation to keep moving forward is absolutely key.鈥�