海角大神

In these days of climate change and personal penny-pinching, US automakers are showcasing their new, socially conscious wares: smaller, more fuel-efficient, and hybrid vehicles, designed for a greening economy.

In Cartersville, Ga., Donald Ray, a shiny Bluetooth earpiece clashing with a scraggly beard, has other plans. 鈥淚鈥檓 a truck guy,鈥� he says, inspecting a used Chevy Silverado short-bed rumbling in idle at a lot here.

Thanks in large part to $10,000 dealer incentives and (relatively) cheaper gasoline, buyers are creeping out of the deep woods and urban jungles, emptying dealer lots of a gritty, gas-guzzling American icon: the full-size pickup truck.

With all other car-sales categories as flat as a mall parking lot, sales of trucks at some dealerships jumped by more than 30 percent in December 鈥� usually the slowest month of the year. In fact, dealers reported sales matching or surpassing figures from late 2007 鈥� before the Wall Street meltdown, the freezing of credit markets, and the federal bailout of Detroit鈥檚 Big 3.

Hope for the economy

The return of truck buyers represents at least a glimmer of hope for a battered economy 鈥� a cautious sign of rising consumer confidence among rural mud-jumpers and urban latte-haulers. But it also presents a paradox for a country that, post-auto-industry bailout, has a social and financial stake in the survival of domestic car companies: Can Detroit afford to ignore the apparently enduring appeal of what country singer Shane Yellowbird lovingly calls 鈥渕y old pickup truck鈥�?

鈥淭he problem isn鈥檛 as much the people who need the truck for work, but it鈥檚 the people who haul lattes home from Starbucks who have been the prized customers of Detroit,鈥� says Daniel Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign in Washington, which lobbies for higher fuel-efficiency standards. 鈥淭hese are people for whom the pickup is a vestigial piece of the past 鈥� it鈥檚 a lifestyle choice, not something they need.鈥�

鈥淭here are two real crosscurrents here,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a tendency in Detroit to want to do things the way they鈥檝e always done them, and that鈥檚 brought them to the edge of bankruptcy. The risk is that they take a dip in gas prices as a signal that they needn鈥檛 change their ways.鈥�

Along with Thailand, where the modified pickup known as the songthaew is a major people-mover, the US is the world鈥檚 pickup-truck megapower. Created in 1925, the pickup has come to embody not only America's self-reliance and work ethic, but also the pastoral longings of suburbanites. The truck鈥檚 evolution from work vehicle to suburban cruiser, in fact, is what brought trucks like the Ford-150 to the top of the US sales charts.

F-150 still reigns

That love affair hit a rough patch last year. But even with Ford delaying the rollout of its 2009 truck models, the venerable F-150 still topped the overall sales charts for 2008, followed closely by the Chevy Silverado. Market share for large pickups started at 12.3 percent at the start of 2008, fell to 9.3 percent in May as gasoline became expensive, and rose to 13.8 percent in November, as fuel slipped back to 2001 prices. In January, large pickup trucks led all other categories in consumer consideration, as gauged by searches on Edmunds.com.

鈥淭he pickup truck is a uniquely American invention, so for those with an impulse toward nationalism it鈥檚 kind of a natural way ... to endorse American consumerism in a tough environment,鈥� says Allen Jones, a Bozeman, Mont., novelist who uses 鈥渆very square inch鈥� of his 2001 Dodge truck for hauling stuff from hay bales to boat trailers.

Conclusion: From the potato plains of Idaho to the edges of the Barnett Shale gas reserves in Texas, American workers are still betting on their trucks. Here in Cartersville, Troy Cline, a grocery store clerk and freelance landscaper, has owned trucks forever and currently captains a faded 1986 Ford F-100. But the sight of a used Silverado brought him to a dealer lot this week for a potential upgrade.

鈥淭he economy is tough out here, but there鈥檚 still construction going on and people are still working,鈥� he says. As for his own search for a new vehicle, he says, 鈥淥wning a truck is kind of a guy thing. It鈥檚 sitting up high, above the fray.鈥�

Mr. Cline has plenty of company.

鈥淚 have several customers that I鈥檓 trying to find trucks for right now: a farmer, a realtor, and a local businessman,鈥� says Keith Watkins, general manager at Heritage Chevrolet in Lugoff, S.C.. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e willing to start spending their money again, and that鈥檚 really exciting for us.鈥�

And in Wichita Falls, Texas, Patterson Auto Group CEO Paul Tigrett notes a trend: Instead of trading in their trucks, many consumers have added a fuel-efficient car to their personal fleet. About 60 percent of his customers use their trucks for work, he estimates.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e a plumber or in the air conditioning business or whatever along those lines, you鈥檙e not going to show up at a job site in a Yugo,鈥� says Mr. Tigrett. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to have a truck.鈥�

Role of incentives

Economists, however, caution against reading too much into the truck sale surge. For one, Detroit is practically paying customers to take bloated inventories off their hands, relieving pent-up demand.
What鈥檚 more, the fundamentals of the auto industry overall point to a continued slowdown in sales this year.

鈥淚ncentives and lower gas prices suggest that there鈥檚 still some life in the truck market, but it is still swimming against these overall national and global trends,鈥� says Martin Zimmerman, Ford鈥檚 former chief economist and now a business professor at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Then there鈥檚 the crux for Detroit: How to balance investments in smaller, more-efficient cars against the American love affair with the big ride? In the past, Washington has been leery about imposing stricter fuel-efficiency standards on Detroit automakers and higher fuel taxes on drivers, lest they dampen enthusiasm for the high-profit truck series that has largely sustained US automakers.

But that conventional wisdom is likely to be challenged under President Obama, who has argued for tougher fuel-efficiency standards to reduce carbon emissions by 10 percent in 2020. Moreover, the Washington bailout raised the political and social stakes inherent in the survival of the Big 3.

The recent spike in truck sales is 鈥渁 major reason why we have not tried to rely on gas prices to move cleaner, more-efficient vehicles into the fleet,鈥� says Mr. Becker, in Washington. 鈥淸Automakers] work for us now, and they need to be much more concerned about the air we breathe and the atmosphere our children grow up in and the oil addiction that their vehicles promote. They now have a social responsibility that they failed to recognize before.鈥�

But trying to use tougher federal or state emission standards to force Detroit to build vehicles that Americans ultimately may not want is likely to be counterproductive, says Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com in Santa Monica, Calif. Offsetting a higher gas tax with federal rebates for purchasing high-efficiency vehicles, he argues, would be far more likely to wean Americans from their love affair with big trucks.