海角大神

US secretaries of Defense and State are using their high-profile meetings this week with Arab and Israeli leaders, in part to herald a new Bush administration strategy toward Iran: cold war-style containment.

The trip comes on the heels of a US proposal to offer $20 billion in military aid to Arab Gulf states (mostly Saudi Arabia) and a $30 billion package for Israel. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not mask the purpose of the deal when she called Iran 鈥渢he single most important single-country challenge to ... US interests in the Middle East.鈥�

鈥淭he talks on Tuesday night between [Saudi Arabian] King Abdullah and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice were very important, as they signaled the beginning of a political showdown between the US, Gulf states, and Egypt on the one hand, and Iran on the other,鈥� says Adel al-Toraifi, a Saudi analyst who focuses on his country鈥檚 relations with Iran.

Mr. Toraifi says since the US 鈥渟urge鈥� in Iraq is not achieving fast results, America wants to shift attention to another front.

鈥淭he Americans were waiting for the surge in Iraq to take effect, but since the surge wasn鈥檛 going very well, they decided to announce the new offensive of containing Iran. It is important for the Bush administration to [show] some achievements in the Middle East鈥� before a congressional review of the surge planned for September, he says.

鈥淲hat America is doing now is containment, saying that the peripheral states [to Iraq] that are our allies have to be protected,鈥� says Meir Javedanfar, a Tel Aviv-based Iran expert and author of 鈥淭he Nuclear Sphynx of Tehran.鈥�

鈥淚t looks inevitable that America will withdraw [from Iraq], so it鈥檚 building a giant fence around Iraq by supporting the countries it has good relations with.鈥�

This may lead to shoring up Sunni states 鈥� particularly Iran鈥檚 neighbors in the Gulf 鈥� who will be a main driver of US policy as an eventual draw-down of US forces in Iraq looks more likely.

Israel, which vociferously opposed US arms packages to the Saudis in the 1980s, has made it clear it鈥檚 not opposed to this current deal. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he 鈥渦nderstood鈥� the US decision, and said 鈥渢here is a need for a united front between the US and us regarding Iran.鈥�

鈥淔or Israel, the No. 1 priority is Iran, and in this case they see the Saudis as on the same side as Israel. They have a mutual interest in containing Iran,鈥� says Mr. Javedanfar.

Analysts say Israel also has an eye on drawing Saudi Arabia deeper into peace efforts with the Palestinians 鈥� and perhaps encouraging them to become the third Arab state to recognize Israel. President Bush is proposing an Arab-Israeli peace conference to be held in Israel in the fall. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said his country would consider attending, but only if it addresses 鈥渋ssues of real substance.鈥�

That appeared to be a reference to a Saudi proposal made earlier this year that promises peace and recognition of all Arab states in return for Israel abandoning the territory it seized in the 1967 war.

But whether the US military aid will add up to much change 鈥� in either Iran鈥檚 ambitions, or the eventual stabilizing of Iraq 鈥� remains to be seen.

Ms. Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gate鈥檚 trip to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority鈥檚 headquarters in Ramallah began with potentially embarrassing comments from the US ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, who is the former ambassador to Iraq. He accused Saudi Arabia of undermining Iraq鈥檚 stability, an allegation similar to the ones the US has lobbed at Tehran.

After a meeting with Rice on Wednesday morning in Jeddah, the Saudi foreign minister said he was 鈥渁stounded鈥� by the criticism, and said his country was doing all that it can. Then his government agreed to a US request to upgrade its diplomatic relationship with Iraq. Rice praised the Saudis: 鈥淲e are good friends, we are allies.... [But] it doesn鈥檛 mean there won鈥檛 be disagreements about policies, tactics.鈥�

Jamal Khashoggi, editor in chief of the Saudi daily Al-Watan, said that Saudi Arabia has not helped the US in Iraq until recently as former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made a point of telling Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab countries to stay away from Iraq.

鈥淲hile our presence is visible in Lebanon, our presence in Iraq is very limited because of the Americans, especially when Rumsfeld was the secretary of Defense. Saudi Arabia and Jordan felt unwelcome in Iraq, but the Americans are now asking for our help there,鈥� he says.

Mr. Khashoggi says there is only so much Saudi Arabia can do to keep jihadis, many of whom are Saudi nationals, from traveling into Iraq.

He says the Kingdom has fully secured its border with Iraq, and that it was Syria that was allowing Saudi fighters to be smuggled into Iraq through its borders.

鈥淭he problem here is Syria 鈥� all the suicide bombers are going into Iraq through Syria,鈥� he says.

The new strategy of containing Iran taking shape in the Middle East resembled the cold war standoff with the Soviet Union. At that time, the US bolstered the militaries of regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt as well as the Western democracies of Europe with a twofold objective: to create powerful friends and thereby restrict that country鈥檚 territorial ambitions, and to draw the Soviets into an arms race that some strategists believed the US and its friends would be better able to afford economically than the Kremlin.

Rice, whose academic expertise was on the Soviet Union and the strategies to oppose that regime, now looks to be running Middle East policy from an old playbook.

鈥淚ran is not the Soviet Union. In 1946, the Red Army was all the way to Berlin and had helped win the war,鈥� says Ervand Abrahamian, an Iran analyst and historian at Baruch College in New York. 鈥淲hat capabilities do the Iranians have? These old cold warriors need a reality [check].鈥�

Mr. Abrahamian also says the notion that arming Saudi Arabia and its neighbors will somehow contain Iran is inaccurate, and may in fact encourage Iran in the view that a nuclear bomb is its best guarantee of survival.

鈥淚ran has no has no military capability outside it鈥檚 own territory, it鈥檚 military budget is the total of Kuwait鈥檚 and the United Arab Republics combined and 鈥� it has no projection ability,鈥� he says. 鈥淪ure, Iran can support the militias in Iraq, but that鈥檚 not a threat to Saudi Arabia. I think the point is to harness in the Saudis and Gulf States diplomatically so they can say 鈥楬ey, we鈥檙e building an anti-Iranian coalition,鈥� [which] draws attention from the Iraq and Palestinian issues.鈥�

Asked if the logic is to draw Iran into a costly arms race, Abrahamian says it might, but worries about the consequences. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 imagine that Iran is not going to somehow react. The danger is if Iran is pushed into an arms race, the cheap answer to the problem is to go nuclear.鈥�

Javedanfar also worries that any arms raise could encourage Iran in its nuclear ambitions, but has the added concern that the US is rewarding the Saudis at a time when he and many others believe that country is contributing to the bloodshed in Iraq, something which in turn could help Iran.

鈥淚nstead of selling weapons to the Saudis, the Americans should be twisting their arms, saying if they don鈥檛 contain the Sunni elements now, they get nothing,鈥� he says.

鈥淭o give weapons to the Saudis now, while they are also part of the problem in Iraq, is going to mean a bigger mess. It鈥檚 going to strengthen the Iranian position, because the Shiites, who were hoping America would be an ally, will fall into the [Iranian camp] with more enthusiasm than before.鈥� [Editor's note: The original version quoted Mr. Javedanfar saying that giving weapons to Saudi Arabia would push more Shiite groups into the"Shiite camp." It should have been clarified that he was specifically referring to the "Iranian camp."]

US officials appear to believe that Saudi Arabia could wield influence in Iraq to bring Sunni militants to the peace table.

Analysts in Saudi Arabia say that while the country is happy to have more aid, the Kingdom will evade outright confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran and is likely to take a different tack than the US. The country recently hosted a visit by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.

鈥淪audi Arabia is working to contain Iran, based on its own interests. Our policy is not to leave a vacuum for them 鈥� but [also] not to escalate things with them but to engage with them positively,鈥� says Mr. Khashoggi

鈥淪audis have realized that there are two fronts in Iran 鈥� the hard-liners and the moderates,鈥� he says.